Hating on New York Metropolis for a residing
A buddy shared this Twitter/X post, and I first thought, nicely, that is on-brand politically. However with some research, it’s clear that this headline can also be wildly deceptive. After I learn the piece, the very first thing I did was ask Grok, the native AI on Twitter/X, for a actuality verify. I discovered that even Grok thought it was bad, regardless of the cesspool that’s Twitter/X:
The headline sensationalizes each the mechanism and the causation.
Whereas I’ve many mates in the true property part of the tabloid, a number of months in the past I had espresso with a enterprise editor in one other part on the NY Submit who characterised their job (paraphrased) as “discovering tales about New Yorkers fleeing the town.” This was shared in a really matter-of-fact manner.
This was admittedly my small PTSD expertise, because it jogged my memory of the numerous quantity of misinformation I needed to learn by throughout the current NYC mayoral election. I pushed again publicly utilizing fact-based analysis, and I shared a number of Housing Notes posts beneath on the subject — separating anecdotal from precise housing information.
The NY Submit story is intentionally deceptive
The Citizen’s Budget Committee (CBC) is an incredible useful resource for New Yorkers, and this explicit examine was the supply for the NY Post story. You will need to level out that:
- The CBC report refers back to the New York State economic system from 2010 to 2022, not New York Metropolis’s economic system — no overlap with the pied-à-terre tax or the brand new Mayor.
- The picture of the present NYC mayor that the tabloid used was opportunistic, meant to drive anti-socialist messaging, but he wasn’t the mayor in 2022! The truth is, he was not a family identify till July of 2025, when he burst onto the political scene after successful the first. He first gained elected workplace in 2020 as a New York State Meeting member.
- The report confirmed that the variety of millionaires really doubled to ~70,000 by 2022. In different phrases, New York added high-income filers however misplaced floor relative to the nationwide progress of prime earners and to competitor states like California, Florida and Texas, which all gained share. Nothing new right here in our understanding of the pandemic period, simply affirmation.
- Florida and Texas had been the beneficiaries of huge inbound migration from the Northeast and California following the pandemic lockdown. That inflated migration interval basically ended a minimum of a yr in the past.
As a result of New York’s State and Metropolis budgets rely closely on private revenue taxes paid by a really small group of excessive earners, dropping the millionaire share interprets immediately into much less income. Filers over $1 million in adjusted gross revenue account for lower than 1 % of New York filers however paid roughly 40 % of the Metropolis’s private revenue tax and an analogous share on the state stage in 2022. If New York had merely maintained its 2010 share of U.S. millionaires, the State and Metropolis collectively would have collected about $12–$13 billion extra in private revenue tax income in 2022, relatively than $7-$8 billion.
The headline has nothing to do with the Pied-à-Terre (PAT) Tax or having a “socialist” mayor. After all, I’d assume the PAT will produce some millionaires. California, Florida and Texas all elevated their shares of the nationwide millionaire inhabitants over the identical interval that New York’s fell, strengthening their very own fiscal positions. The important thing to NYC’s financial success is placing a steadiness between serving the long-neglected general inhabitants and never ignoring or demonizing the rich.
The CBC report being cited
The Hidden Cost of New York’s Shrinking Millionaire Share, by the Citizens Budget Commission, has a wealth (pun meant) of data to contemplate relating to the long run course of NYC.
New York State’s share of the nation’s millionaires shrank from 12.7 % to eight.7 % between 2010 and 2022, although it has extra millionaires than ever. Different states (Florida, Texas, California) are gaining them sooner. Since a tiny sliver of prime earners covers an enormous chunk of metropolis and state taxes, that relative drop in millionaires price New York roughly $11–13 billion in tax income in 2022 alone. It’s known as “hidden” as a result of extra people and better income masks the truth that New York is dropping floor to the remainder of the nation by way of higher-net-worth people.
Ultimate ideas
A NY Post story blamed the mayor and the brand new pied-à-terre tax for rich New Yorkers fleeing, however the CBC report it cited covers 2010–2022, and the tax didn’t even take impact till July 2026, making the claimed trigger unattainable. In actuality, NY’s millionaire rely almost doubled to ~70,000 by 2022, however its nationwide share shrank (from 12.7 % to eight.7 %) as Florida, Texas, and California grew sooner, largely on account of pandemic-era migration that has since cooled. Because the prime 1 % pay about 40 % of NYC’s revenue taxes, that misplaced floor price the town and state roughly $11–13 billion in 2022 income.
It’s exhausting sufficient to maintain up with the information, however to spend the time to make it correct is sort of unattainable.
The precise remaining thought — Let’s find out.
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