What’s a New Yorker bought to do to get a brand new condominium?
The inventory crisis that has had new growth groups sounding the alarm since final 12 months seems to have arrived, with town counting its lowest variety of new growth items in over a decade.
The shortage has led to some disappointing exercise amongst new growth initiatives to this point in 2026, with brokers working within the few deliveries say they’re getting calls about their initiatives months earlier than the doorways of a gross sales gallery have even opened.
From April to September, new growth contracts are down 26 p.c in comparison with final 12 months, in response to information from Marketproof. However throughout that very same interval, resale condominium contracts are up 12 p.c, a sign that patrons need condos, they’re simply having a tough time discovering any new ones.
“There’s simply not sufficient new growth in stock on the market for the patrons who’re on the lookout for it,” stated Corcoran Sunshine Advertising Group president Kelly Mack. Demand has shortly eaten up any new items that do come to market. Within the final 12 months, sponsor gross sales have outpaced new unit introductions 2-to-1.
On the finish of August, Manhattan was left with simply 2,800 items of recent stock, the bottom complete since 2014.
Lots of these remaining items are additionally concentrated in buildings which were available on the market for years, like One Wall Street and 125 Greenwich. The Waldorf-Astoria conversion and the Malabar Residences on 57th Street even have a big variety of items to promote.
“An enormous portion of the stock that’s presently available on the market is cussed stock,” stated Compass Improvement Advertising’s Dan Parker.
Whereas probably the most fascinating neighborhoods have lengthy been the Higher East Facet and Downtown, over 60 p.c of the present stock is concentrated in the Financial District and Midtown, the place even newer buildings have struggled to promote lately.
Initiatives which have popped up in additional coveted places have offered shortly, typically with only a few items ever even hitting the open market.
Legion Funding Group and Nahla Capital’s challenge at 1122 Madison is almost offered out in lower than a 12 months, inking main offers, including one for a penthouse unit asking $89 million. The Village West at 525 Sixth Avenue has moved all of its 68 items, in response to the event’s web site. And 220 East Ninth Avenue offered all of its items with out ever opening a gross sales gallery.
“You’ve got these, what I’ll name, choose success tales, in prime residential places in areas which have lacked product for a number of years,” stated Brown Harris Stevens Improvement Advertising’s Robin Schneiderman.
An rising pipeline
This fall, the dynamics seem like shifting. For the primary time in years, town could have an above-average variety of new items hitting the market.
Greater than 1,000 new items are slated to come back on-line between now and the top of the 12 months, a 94 p.c enhance from final 12 months and a ten p.c enhance in comparison with the 10-year historic common, in response to Mack.
Though there doesn’t seem like any new contenders for the city’s “It” building coming to market, upcoming launches embrace a number of buildings in areas which are already well-liked with rich patrons.
Corcoran Sunshine Advertising Group is promoting the 72-unit 101 Franklin in Tribeca, which simply tapped Tara King-Brown and Richard Hicks to steer gross sales. The challenge is the biggest in Tribeca in a decade, in response to Marketproof.
Legion Funding Group, scorching off its success at 1122 Madison, can also be anticipated to launch gross sales at two downtown buildings this 12 months, each with Corcoran Sunshine.
At 550 West twenty first Avenue, the developer has a deliberate 83-unit challenge, with gross sales anticipated to start out at $2.5 million. Legion and EJS Group are additionally anticipated to launch gross sales on the Kohn Pedersen Fox-designed Greenwich Spire at 11 West thirteenth Avenue, which could have 34 items, and at roughly 500 ft tall, develop into the tallest constructing within the neighborhood.
Uptown, a staff from BHSDM is dealing with gross sales at a Robert A.M. Stern-designed constructing at 200 West 88th Avenue. The Nortco Improvement could have 37 items priced beginning at $5 million, in response to Marketproof.
There’s additionally the long-awaited relaunch of 262 Fifth Avenue, which had a false begin final 12 months earlier than tapping a new sales team led by Sotheby’s Worldwide Realty’s Nikki Area and Ben Pofcher, in partnership with Sotheby’s Worldwide Realty Improvement Advisors.
The launches coming this 12 months ought to function a real litmus check for the brand new growth market, which has for therefore lengthy been constrained by its stock issues, Schneiderman stated.
“Lastly, we’re going to get some new stock,” he stated. “We’re additionally going to get it in some prime places, and that must be a powerful barometer of the state of the market going ahead.”
Lengthy-term
Nonetheless, the market stays a methods away from what many take into account wholesome stock ranges.
From 2026 to 2029, Manhattan is predicted to see a median of about 1,500 items come to market every year, roughly 16 p.c beneath pre-2021 ranges, in response to information from Corcoran Sunshine.
The excellent news is that a number of the provide is shifting to areas that appear higher positioned to soak up new items. The Higher East Facet is projected so as to add 182 items yearly, a 54 p.c enhance in comparison with the earlier 10-year common, whereas the Monetary District shall be bringing on no new main condominium buildings.
New condos coming to market on the Higher West Facet are additionally anticipated to tick up 8 p.c yearly throughout the subsequent three years, nevertheless it’s virtually totally pushed by Extell’s 430-unit project on the former Disney campus. Downtown deliveries are anticipated to fall 10 p.c throughout that point interval, as builders battle to search out land in probably the most fascinating places, whereas Midtown is predicted to leap 46 p.c.
Brooklyn, which has been residence to latest main initiatives from Naftali Group and Two Timber on the Williamsburg waterfront, is projected to have its pipeline shrink much more. The borough will see virtually 30 p.c fewer condos come to market from 2026 to 2029 on an annual common than it did throughout the earlier 10 years.
The 2 developments which have dominated this decade — smaller initiatives and higher-end deliveries — can even doubtless persist.
Models coming to market from buildings in Manhattan with over 150 items will drop virtually 40 p.c within the subsequent three years in comparison with the earlier 10-year annual common, in response to Corcoran Sunshine’s forecast.
Much more drastic, solely 43 items per 12 months will come from condos with a blended worth per sq. foot of $1,800 or much less, down 74 p.c from the earlier 10 years. However there shall be 123 items per 12 months from condos asking over $5,000 per sq. foot, virtually triple the earlier 10-year common.
“The elevated price of doing enterprise makes it a lot tougher to develop these condominium initiatives that pencil out until they will actually command costs on the very high of the market,” Mack stated. “It’s gotten extremely tough and harder through the years to place collectively the kinds of assemblages that assist large-scale growth of any kind, particularly in a number of the most fascinating elements of town.”
